Regarding the article in DN
”Sprid inte bilden av att det är för sent att rädda klimatet”
To
John Hassler
Rodrigo Caballero
Deliang Chen
Per Krusell
Thorsten Mauritsen
Jonas Nycander
Michael Tjernström
LennartBengtsson is also warmly welcome as well as anyone who wants to take the challenge of
the most important issue of our time: climate sensitivity
I ask to challenge each of you to a duel.
1. Black curve is NASA measurements of actual global temperature anomaly.
2. There are many calculations (A) , made by climate experts on how the NASA curve is likely to continue.
Pick any such prediction, such as the one Exxon made in secret 42 years ago,
or one of the more recent ones, such as
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss, Professor Peter Nightingale,
The temperature anomaly data of NASA/GISS can be used for a linear regression, two-parameter
least-squares fit. This yields the following expression
3. Curve B is the Earth's temperature anomaly, as a mathematical consequence of
climate sensitivity=3 . This corresponds to the blue text below of the IPCC, which during
last 40 years asserted this climate sensitivity. No change in the last report in 2021.
Task: Calculate the climate sensitivity that drives curve A.
This task may be the most important in the whole climate change effort as the world's climate policy NetZero
policy stands or falls on its outcome.
The importance of the result is that two things happen if the climate sensitivity goes above 3.
1. Earth's temperature does not stop when emissions stop
Thus the NetZero policy falls. It will not work.
2. IPCC forecast +2C by 2100 at 450 ppm falls. This can already be seen at NASA
global temperature curve. This proves that climate sensitivity is above 3.
The results of the various calculations can be published here
or even better under DN debate.