Eng (short version)

Is NetZero 2050  a realistic climate solution  ?

 

The view today is in most cases that the Earth's temperature increase stops

when emissions stop.

 

We must hope that this is correct. In that case, Zero Emissions 2050 may be a workable solution.

 

It is important that complicated models and simple models are developed side by side.

 

A simple model that I developed in 2008 gave an accurate temperature forecast for 2008-2021:

Meanwhile, the IPCC completely failed with its main model, which nevertheless became the foundation of

the Swedish and EU climate laws. A simple climate model gave an accurate forecast while the IPCC's model, which

was based on a lot of complex simulations ended up 60 years wrong.

 

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My simple and easy to understand model looks like this, step by step:

 

1. Everyone probably agrees that the early 1700s with 275 ppm CO2 is a good zero point.

The Earth has no over-temperature. Earth is stable.

275 ppm CO2 means that there are 275 liters of CO2 in 1 million liters of air. (Blue ring in the diagram)

 

2. Measurements on ice cores have yielded a whole cloud of measurement points with a lot of noise.

Yet we can find an average line through this cloud.

 

scatter_275_550_ppm_gif2

If we look at this same cloud with a time axis, we see that the Earth has had 4 warm periods

last half million years. The +2C overtemperature at 285 ppm CO2 is repeated, time and time again.

(Red ring in the diagram)

 

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3. We accept that there is a logarithmic relationship between CO2 and temperature

 

more....

 

 

4. We then see that the Earth reaches 420 C at 100% CO2. This is consistent with NASA and other calculations.

1.422*36*ln(1000000/275) = 420 C

 

It is a  strong further confirmation that this line can be a good rule of thumb for

expected temperature of the Earth at all possible CO2 concentrations.

Most important is of course the lower range, up to 550 ppm

 

Now we can draw conclusions that are crucial for the understanding of the climate crises.

 

1. The Earth is currently programmed for +22C.

2. We know from NASA that the Earth's real average temperature is rising by 0.035 C/year

3. The time until increased CO2 has had its full effect on temperature is 22/ 0.035 C = 600-800 years

4. Earth's temperature cannot start to fall until CO2 levels fall below 285 ppm

5. About 2000 Gt of CO2 need to be removed to reach 285 ppm

6. The Paris Agreement falls around 2030 whatever we do.

7. To save the Paris Agreement, 2000 / (2030-2021) = 200 Gton must be removed each year.

8. Technology that the world has never seen must be available within 2 years

9. Zero Emissions 2045 only solves 1% of the problem. We need to take x100 times more powerful action.

10. Three scientists now say the same thing in the most important climate article in years. NetZero is a trap.

11. If NetZero fails as a climate solution, the Glasgow meeting will have to find a completely new direction.

 

 

Those who claim that temperature rise stops when emissions stop should be very sure that they are right.

Otherwise they will risk the collapse of civilization on this planet and the future of 8 billion people.

 

The task to handle 200 Gton CO2/year can not be done without well organized and  coordinated

efforts by billions of people.  

 

 


 

There is further confirmation that temperature doesn't stop when emissions stop.

 

All measurements on ice cores produce a cloud of measurement points.

Earth's actual temperature measurements  last 100 years (NASA) gives a stick with some slope.

A detective who ponders this image for a few days sees the whole solution.

Do you see it too ?  This small image hides everything that we need to know about the climate crises.

 

scatter_vostok_nasa

 

 

 

Pls get in touch for more detailed info

 

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Best regards

Bengt Ovelius

 

bengt@ppm.today