Has the IPCC made a miscalculation that could turn out to be a disastrous trap?
The very basis of all climate projections is climate sensitivity.
The IPCC has been claiming for 40 years that the climate sensitivity is 3, which means that the Earth's
temperature rises +3C for every doubling of CO2.
From this starting point, the blue sign has been (below) calculated that almost everyone knows by heart.
This is also the very basis of countries' climate policies. Swedish Government Bill 2016/17:146
has been shaped from this, which then gave the Climate Act 2017:720.
This in turn is the basis for the NetZero policy (Zero Emissions 20245)
Johan Rockström points out in an article in SVD that only a small change in climate sensitivity
turns the whole climate policy on its head.
Since all power emanates from the people (the constitution), the people must be informed
about these connections. This could be the most important discussion in the whole climate debate
and must be raised in the media and in politics.
This could play a central role in the coming elections. For the country, it is a matter of designing a
comfortable transition to a balanced world. This can only be done if the context is understood.
Nobel laureate Svante Arrhenius already calculated 120 years ago that the earth is governed by a
logarithmic relationship between CO2 content and global temperature along these lines
of formula t = 1.443*cs*ln(ppmCO2/275)
If the CO2 content is ppmCO2=450 and the climate sensitivity cs=3, we see that the IPCC uses
this formula and that the IPCC has calculated exactly correctly : 1.443*cs*ln(ppmCO2/275) = 2
The blue sign is thus a mathematically exact consequence of climate sensitivity = 3
Anyone who went to high school understands in detail this formula which must be included in the discussion.
If the formula is omitted, the crystal-clear relationships do not emerge.
A further confirmation comes from Johan Rockström
"Swedish climate policy, EU climate law, and the global Paris Agreement
are based on the assumption of a climate sensitivity of 3 degrees.
But right now this foundation is being shaken by an earthquake in the scientific community.
One third of the 40s of climate models that underpin the
the next IPCC report .........a higher climate sensitivity
And these are not just any models, but some of the "heavyweights" among
models, such as the Hadley model from the MetOffice in the UK,
the US NCAR model CESM2 and the European Cooperative Model EC-Earth3 (4.3 degrees).
The problem is that NASA's actual measurements (black curve ) reveal that +2C may come year
2040 and not 2100. The error could be as large as 60 years.
Similarly, even the CO2 level of 450 ppm is seen to occur 60 years earlier.
The latest IPCC report lays the foundation for the NetZero policy, which is probably the only method in the world
to solve the climate crisis.
It is a mathematically exact consequence of climate sensitivity = 3 that global warming stops
within a few decades when all emissions are stopped. There is very simple mathematics behind this
and the IPCC conclusion is absolutely correct if climate sensitivity is 3.
On this basis, the world is trying to force CO2 emissions to zero as quickly as possible
so that global warming stops. This is called the NetZero policy (Zero Emissions 2045)
All of this provides heavy evidence that climate sensitivity = 3 is grossly wrong.
From here, a more correct value of climate sensitivity can be found that gives a workable forecast.
With a more correct value of climate sensitivity, exactly what Johan Rockström says will happen
discusses in the SVD article.
" then the entire remaining emission space disappears in one fell swoop.
In that case, we cannot stop global warming at 1.5 degrees."
If we dare to dig a little deeper, the crystal clear connections emerge.
We get a better overview by looking at how the Earth's temperature is affected by
CO2 levels. The cloud of dots comes from ice cores and the "stick" that sticks out
are NASA measurements of actual average temperature over a century.
This picture is completely clear facts from VOSTOK ice cores and from NASA.
Anyone can work through this by downloading the data and
making this chart. This image captures perhaps the deepest intrinsic properties of the Earth
and this one blip should be enough to make a workable climate policy
that looks very different from the current NetZero.
Anyone with a bit of detective work now suspects why the IPCC got the calculations wrong.
A little thought-experiment clarifies:
Suppose CO2 levels rise from pre-industrial 275 ppm to the current 420 ppm in a single day.
Then the sticking out point becomes horizontal and the climate sensitivity becomes zero.
This is because the Earth needs a long time for the CO2 concentration to become temperature.
Now suppose that CO2 increases from pre-industrial 275 ppm to current 420 ppm over the course of
of 10,000 years. Then the stick will be in harmony with the cloud of points and
the climate sensitivity will be about 36.
If modern civilization emitted CO2 at half the rate, the IPCC would have determined
The unsettling suspicion is that the IPCC based all climate policy on the unstabilised
stick that sticks out. Climate sensitivity=3 is then just a measure of how fast CO2 was released
out last century. Thus our entire climate policy, including NetZero, falls apart.
This needs to be brought up for discussion.
The next discussion is about how climate policy needs to be fundamentally changed to
face the completely different reality that results from higher climate sensitivity,
This is solvable but time is running out,