Flaw in the models

The Earth is more sensitive to CO2 than previously thought

 

It was already too much in 1895. The warming started in the 1700s.

 

Now CNN news is suggesting much the same in 2021 1125.

 

ArcticOceanWarming

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/24/us/arctic-ocean-early-warming-climate/index.html

 

 

Francesco Muschitiello, an author on the study and assistant professor of geography at the University of Cambridge,

said the findings were worrisome because the early warming suggests there might be a flaw in the models scientists

use to predict how the climate will change.

 

 

 

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My name is Bengt Ovelius and my focus is on innovation to help find climate solutions.

My theoretical tools have also been used on climate since 20 years.

I have, together with a scientist,  warned for the flaw in the models already in may 2008

in direct communication with the  IPCC top leadership.

 

As a whistleblower, I can mathematically justify the following conclusions:

 

1. The flaws in current IPCC models are so severe that it prevents necessary innovations to emerge.

2. The basis of all climate calculations is climate sensitivity (how many degrees does the earth increase for a doubling of CO2)

3. The IPCC has been calculating with the wrong climate sensitivity=S=3 for 40 years. The correct value is around S=36

4. S=3 allows Zero Emissions 2045 to work. If true value is S=36 then all current climate efforts are ineffective.

5. S=3 makes the temperature stop when emissions are stopped; at S=36 the temperature continues to rise just as fast.

6. If S=36 then there was too much CO2 already in 1895. If emissions had stopped then, the Earth would have reached a dangerous +2C 700 years later.

7. At S=3, the reaction time between emissions and stabilized temperature is about 20 years.

8. At S=36, the reaction time between emissions and stabilized temperature is about 700 years.

 

 

The following is the simple explanation of Climate Sensitivity=S=36

 

1. The relationship between CO2 and global temperature can be calculated from ice cores.

There will be a cloud of points with high noise. Just count the squares and see

that the Earth's temperature has risen about +36C with a doubling of CO2.

The IPCC has placed its main prediction of +2C by 2100 450 ppm completely out of reality.

xxxclip4933

 

2. Everyone agrees that the year 1700 had a good CO2 content of 275 ppm CO2 and zero overtemperature and zero warming.

This is the stable earth that can provide a sustainable civilization.

 

3. Four times in half a million years 285 ppm and dangerous +2C have occurred simultaneously.

We can reasonably associate 285 ppm with +2C

 

clip4746

 

 

 

 

This is the only logarithmic formula that satisfies the above conditions.

 

t=1.443*cs*ln(ppm/275)=21C cs=36 ppm=413 This in turn requires the climate sensitivity=cs=36

 

 

Model under climate sensitivity=s=36:

 

Earth is in an oven.

So the oven holds +21 C

A bowl of water, +1.1 C corresponds to the oceans on Earth.

 

What saves us from this dangerous situation?

 

The wrong answer is in chapter 5 of the last IPCC report:

 

What the IPCC claims, if you simplify slightly,

is that the surface water in the bowl stays at +1.1C

for hundreds of years - even though the oven is constantly at +21C.

earth_oven_bowl_skal2

Here is the IPCC report

 

IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report See chapter 5

 

This is primarily an issue that every citizen needs to get to grips with because

the above reasoning suggests that the experts are failing to give us an accurate climate picture.

 

Grateful though if a united climate expertise can confirm

 

1. that temperatures will continue to rise once emissions are stopped, so that climate policy can be corrected.

 

2. alternatively, explain so that everyone can understand why a bowl of cold water

can stay cold for 100s of years in a hot oven. (The salvation of mankind according to the IPCC recipe).

 

This is the most important issue in the whole climate work. The whole climate policy stands or falls with the answer.

A discussion must be started on the country's most important issue because the current

climate policy is highly likely to be completely ineffective.

discussion in society.

 

There is only one way out: 200 Gt of CO2 and 2 Gt of methane must

from the atmosphere every year, starting no later than 2025. It's pretty simple math

behind this. This is absolutely the only way to save the Paris Agreement.

At this rate, the entire climate crisis will be solved in 20 years.

The laws of nature simply say: Choose to win or lose.

 

 

sinking_boat5

 

The earth is like a boat with a leak. Now it has gone so far that it is approaching panic.

Should we put all our efforts into plugging the little hole or should we go ahead and pour?

The more detailed reasoning can be found here.

As an inventor, my focus is on the solution.

 

The solution can be found in two steps:

1. Gas separation with nanotechnology

2. Methane to electricity with Vatneengine

 

A practical approach could be 100 Million such houses. It would take care

of the entire problem.

 

 

 

MVH Bengt Ovelius

 

PS We have an oven temperature of +21.4C right now. On top of this, NASA reports that the flow of energy into the oceans

has doubled in the last 14 years. This needs to be investigated further but it may suggest that the oven temperature is now

such that +50C is possible, as in Oregon and Canada this summer. It's the oceans that are holding back

temperatures and perhaps this kind of huge, previously unknown temperature can be expected inland, far from the ocean

under special conditions ?