Around 2005,researcher Örjan Hallberg suggested testing different time delays and climate sensitivities
with a computer to find the model that fits best with reality. This can easily be done with Excel.
IPCC, SMHI and Swedish Climate Policy Council calculate Climate Sensitivity=3
Delay between new CO2 and new global temperature = 0-20 years
Programmed temperature = Committed temperature = about 1 C (rises so much after all emissions are stopped)
The whole climate policy is based on this. Stopped emissions give cross stop in temperature,
Therefore it is argued that Zero Emissions 2045 can work. If we just stop emissions quickly then
even the Paris Agreement can be saved. (+1.5C)
If we do just the computer simulation that Örjan Hallberg proposed and try all possible
climate sensitivities and time delays, we can get a very accurate match
between the theoretical model (blue dots) and NASA's real, filtered global temperature data (brown)
This excellent match requires the following:
Delay between new CO2 and new global temperature = 900 years
Programmed temperature = Committed temperature = about 24 C (rising so much after all emissions are stopped)
Stopped emissions make the temperature continue to rise for 900 years and thus reach +24C
Therefore Zero Emissions 2045 cannot work.
Perhaps the most surprising thing is that climate sensitivity goes from 36C at 275 ppm in 1700, and rises exponentially,
It is currently around +70C. This is in sharp contrast to the IPCC which claims +3C, slightly decreasing,
There will soon be a Windows program that everyone can use and understand.
Then you can follow the calculation down to the smallest detail.
Anyone with high school skills should already now put this calculation into excel.
The calculation is very simple.
It is based on the very definition of climate sensitivity t=cs*ln(ppmCO2/275)/ln(2) cs=climate sensitivity
and on the equation describing the charging of a condenser by a resistor.
No other knowledge is needed to carry out the most important calculation of mankind.
This calculation leads to the conclusion that Dr Peter Carter is right: the ICPP has manipulated climate sensitivity.
It also leads to the scientific earthquake that Prof. Johan Rockström warned about
in his excellent article in SVD https://www.svd.se/den-heliga-graal-klimatkansligheten-skakas-i-grunden 2020-07-18
Suggestion to climate experts: start excel and make this simulation. It is urgent and you will have the evidence right before your eyes!
Please feed back to improve all details of this model !