To the IPCC Chair
Dr. Hoesung Lee
Dear Mr Lee,
The last IPCC report seem to have some serious errors that will impact Glasgow
in a fundamental way. This urgently needs to be discussed.
•Earth temperature doesn't stop when emissions stop
•For that reason the NetZero 2050 politics can not work as intended.
In year 2008 I made a calculation about how earth temperature would
continue if all emissions stopped in year 2010.
A medical scientists that I knew spent a week without any prior knowledge
of climate science. He came up with the graph below. It confirmed my calculations
and he said: This must not be ignored !
Now, almost 15 years later we can easily see that he was right.
I sent this graph (below) to the Chair of IPCC Prof. Mohan Munasinghe 2008.
I also wrote 2008:
It is not enough to bring CO2 emissions down to zero.
It will be necessary within 20 years to reverse CO2
with the same speed as it is now emitted. Otherwise earth will rise
more than 3 - 4 centigrades, within a timespan of 50 years from now.
Prof. Mohan Munasinghe answered:
From: Mohan Munasinghe [mailto:mohan@mindlanka.org]
Sent: den 1 juni 2008 07:08
To: Bengt Ovelius
Subject: Re: Climate Scenario
Thanks for your kind words and sharing your views. Your scenario is certainly startling.
I will show it to some IPCC colleagues.
Best regards MM
The graph shows how earth temperature (our model) continues at 0.023 C/year
if all emissions are stopped in year 2010. Now we can see in the mirror
how wrong the IPCC model was in year 2008 (red) and how right our model was.(blue)
This conclusion is equally true today 2021. In a situation with no emissions the rate of
temperature rise can not be smaller than 0.035 C/year at 420 ppm. (=NASA)
The graph below from the
"IPCC report Climate Change 2021, The Physical Science Basis, Sixth Assessment"
needs to be twisted upwards.
Why? The Earth has 3000 Gton "too much" CO2 in the atmosphere.
This is the primary driver behind 0.035 C/year, not the emissions.
The annual emissions are around 1% of 3000 Gton. Even a decade of emissions can almost
not be measured in earth temperature response. There will be almost no difference between
SSP1 and SSP5. What ever we do, the earth will approx. follow this temperature response below.
This is mathematically calculated in my new book, assuming true cs=36.
The conclusion is that the Glasgow meeting might be of no value at all,
unless the world understands that NetZero2050 will not work as intended.
There are only a few weeks to react on this and to correct the errors.
The Glasgow meeting should give us a climate politics based on truth
that really works.
Fundamental adjustments of the IPCC AR6 WGI should urgently be discussed,
to be ready long before Glasgow November.
Best regards
Bengt Ovelius