On 4 April 2022, the IPCC issued a report warning the world.
It is to be hoped that the IPCC can be a global convening force that leads
to leadership and rapid change.
The IPCC is suggesting that the world is not doing enough. The following argumentation leads in evidence
that the IPCC is not doing enough either. The IPCC is wrong on one point, and this error is so dangerous
that the entire civilization is at risk. Moreover, it is happening fast. An extensive discussion in the press and media
is absolutely necessary.
The IPCC press release of the report already contains this dangerous error:
Global temperatures will stabilise when carbon dioxide emissions reach net zero. For 1.5 °C
this means achieving net-zero global carbon emissions by the early 2050s
The IPCC thus claims that the Earth's temperature will remain at 1.5 C when emissions are stopped in 2050.
Here is the proof, step by step, that this claim is wrong:
1. Perhaps the world's foremost climate scientist Prof. James Hansen claimed 10 years ago
that climate sensitivity is 6. One third of the 40s of climate models that underpin the
IPCC report AR6_WGI in 2021 lean towards the same climate sensitivity.
e.g. the Hadley model from the MetOffice in the UK
and NCAR's CESM2 model. Therefore, we use climate sensitivity=cs=6 as the starting point for the proof
2. We need to estimate the Earth's CO2 content in 2050 taking into account the success of the NetZero policy
but consider that forests and oceans start to give back CO2 through warming.
We estimate 500 ppm CO2 in year 2050. Everyone can make their own estimate and set their own numbers
into the formula below.
3. The IPCC uses the logarithmic formula 1.44*cs*ln(ppm/275) because it is the
basis of the concept of climate sensitivity. With this formula, the IPCC with cs=3
has produced what everyone knows by heart: +2C in 2100 at 450 ppm. These figures can be found in swedish parliament Proposition 2016/17:146 which in turn laid the foundation for the swedish Climate Act 2017:720.
Check for yourself : 1.442*3*ln(450/275) = +2 C
4. If cs=6 and the atmosphere has 500 ppm CO2 then the expected temperature of the earth is
with the same accepted formula 1.442*6*ln(500/275) = 5.17 C
5. NASA has been reporting the global overtemperature for 100 years using various measurement methods.
More recently, satellite measurements are coming in. Dozens of similar organisations produce the same
results. These measurements, which can really be trusted, give a straight line in the graph. We extend this line
with a straight (blue) line until 2050. This line suggests that the Earth has reached +1.9 C real
overtemperature in 2050.
6.If all emissions are stopped in 2050, CO2 will remain constant at 500 ppm for ever.
Following the logarithmic formula used by the IPCC
the expected temperature of the Earth in 2050 at 500 ppm is 1.442*6*ln(500/275) = +5.17C.
7. Right now the Earth is rising at 0.035 C/year and it will rise faster in 2050.
Nevertheless, if we conservatively assume 0.035 C/year, it will take the Earth some time to migrate
following the blue-red arrow. This time is roughly (5.17-1.9)/0.035 = 93 years
8. If the NetZero policy is successfully implemented by 2050
and if all emissions are stopped thereafter
then the Earth will go from 1.9 C to 5.17 C from 2050 during 90 years.
9. Thus it is proven , down to the last detail, that the IPCC is wrong in claiming that
the earth can stabilise at 1.5 C by 2050.
The planned benefits of NetZero 2050 cannot be achieved. Climate policy
must look completely different. The only workable way out is to suck out 200 Gt of CO2
and 2 Gt of methane from the atmosphere per year. Start by 2025 if the Paris Agreement is to be respected.
10. This may be the most important point in the whole climate effort. A comprehensive discussion
is necessary. Climate experts are welcome to confirm or deny, based on a
comprehensive mathematical argumentation (like this) that everyone can understand.