Most dangerous

Most dangerous miscalculation ever ?

 

The IPCC has completely forgotten the time lag between CO2 and temperature

 

We assume the logarithmic relationship between a planet's CO2 content and temperature

t = 1.443 * cs * ln(ppmCO2/275) cs=36

cs=36 gives maximum fit both with Vostok and with NASA points 420C @ 100% CO2

 

 

clip4747

 

The following IPCC plot comes from the last report 2021 IPCC_AR6_WGI.pdf

Example-point: In 2013 at 395 ppm there are 2000 Gton CO2 "too much" and this causes according to. IPCC +1C

The correct answer under the above assumption is +19 C. If the earth rose 0.027 C/year around 2013

then the time 19/0.027 = 700 years before the earth reaches +19C. If all emissions were stopped in 2013, the Earth would reach +19 C after 700 years.

 

 

 

 

IPCC_AR6_WGI_co2_ppm

 

 

 

The time constant "t years" is calculated in the book to be about 700 years.

Since the above logarithmic calculation only refers to the temperature effect of CO2, the following is added

considerable temperature impact of methane. In addition, there is the strongly exponential greenhouse effect

which NASA very recently measured (doubling of the energy flow in 14 years)

Therefore the above blue curve is extremely conservative. Reality will turn out much more brutally, unfortunately.

 

In any case, the IPCC's miscalculation is staggeringly dangerous.At say 2000 Gton , when everyone thinks it gives

+1C, the true value is +19C or more, evolving at full speed over 700 years.

 

 

 

Bakomliggande data

 

https://skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=45

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oceans included

 

 

 

 

Total

Too much

Total

Too much

 

Year

ppm

Gton C

gTon CO2

gTon CO2

Gton CO2

Gton CO2

t_prog

 

0

0.0

0.0

-2145.0

0.0

-4757.5

 

 

5

10.7

39.0

-2106.0

86.5

-4671.0

 

 

10

21.3

78.0

-2067.0

173.0

-4584.5

 

 

15

32.0

117.0

-2028.0

259.5

-4498.0

 

 

20

42.6

156.0

-1989.0

346.0

-4411.5

 

 

25

53.3

195.0

-1950.0

432.5

-4325.0

 

 

30

63.9

234.0

-1911.0

519.0

-4238.5

 

 

35

74.6

273.0

-1872.0

605.5

-4152.0

 

 

40

85.2

312.0

-1833.0

692.0

-4065.5

 

 

45

95.9

351.0

-1794.0

778.5

-3979.0

 

 

50

106.5

390.0

-1755.0

865.0

-3892.5

 

 

55

117.2

429.0

-1716.0

951.5

-3806.0

 

 

60

127.8

468.0

-1677.0

1038.0

-3719.5

 

 

65

138.5

507.0

-1638.0

1124.5

-3633.0

 

 

70

149.1

546.0

-1599.0

1211.0

-3546.5

 

 

75

159.8

585.0

-1560.0

1297.5

-3460.0

 

 

80

170.4

624.0

-1521.0

1384.0

-3373.5

 

 

85

181.1

663.0

-1482.0

1470.5

-3287.0

 

 

90

191.7

702.0

-1443.0

1557.0

-3200.5

 

 

95

202.4

741.0

-1404.0

1643.5

-3114.0

 

 

100

213.0

780.0

-1365.0

1730.0

-3027.5

 

 

105

223.7

819.0

-1326.0

1816.5

-2941.0

 

 

110

234.3

858.0

-1287.0

1903.0

-2854.5

 

 

115

245.0

897.0

-1248.0

1989.5

-2768.0

 

 

120

255.6

936.0

-1209.0

2076.0

-2681.5

 

 

125

266.3

975.0

-1170.0

2162.5

-2595.0

 

 

130

276.9

1014.0

-1131.0

2249.0

-2508.5

 

 

135

287.6

1053.0

-1092.0

2335.5

-2422.0

 

 

140

298.2

1092.0

-1053.0

2422.0

-2335.5

 

 

145

308.9

1131.0

-1014.0

2508.5

-2249.0

 

 

150

319.5

1170.0

-975.0

2595.0

-2162.5

 

 

155

330.2

1209.0

-936.0

2681.5

-2076.0

 

 

160

340.8

1248.0

-897.0

2768.0

-1989.5

 

 

165

351.5

1287.0

-858.0

2854.5

-1903.0

 

 

170

362.1

1326.0

-819.0

2941.0

-1816.5

 

 

175

372.8

1365.0

-780.0

3027.5

-1730.0

 

 

180

383.4

1404.0

-741.0

3114.0

-1643.5

 

 

185

394.1

1443.0

-702.0

3200.5

-1557.0

 

 

190

404.7

1482.0

-663.0

3287.0

-1470.5

 

 

195

415.4

1521.0

-624.0

3373.5

-1384.0

 

 

200

426.0

1560.0

-585.0

3460.0

-1297.5

 

 

205

436.7

1599.0

-546.0

3546.5

-1211.0

 

 

210

447.3

1638.0

-507.0

3633.0

-1124.5

 

 

215

458.0

1677.0

-468.0

3719.5

-1038.0

 

 

220

468.6

1716.0

-429.0

3806.0

-951.5

 

 

225

479.3

1755.0

-390.0

3892.5

-865.0

 

 

230

489.9

1794.0

-351.0

3979.0

-778.5

 

 

235

500.6

1833.0

-312.0

4065.5

-692.0

 

 

240

511.2

1872.0

-273.0

4152.0

-605.5

 

 

245

521.9

1911.0

-234.0

4238.5

-519.0

 

 

250

532.5

1950.0

-195.0

4325.0

-432.5

 

 

255

543.2

1989.0

-156.0

4411.5

-346.0

 

 

260

553.8

2028.0

-117.0

4498.0

-259.5

 

 

265

564.5

2067.0

-78.0

4584.5

-173.0

 

 

270

575.1

2106.0

-39.0

4671.0

-86.5

 

1700

275

585.8

2145.0

0.0

4757.5

0.0

0.0

 

280

596.4

2184.0

39.0

4844.0

86.5

0.9

1895

285

607.1

2223.0

78.0

4930.5

173.0

1.9

 

290

617.7

2262.0

117.0

5017.0

259.5

2.8

 

295

628.4

2301.0

156.0

5103.5

346.0

3.6

1925

300

639.0

2340.0

195.0

5190.0

432.5

4.5

 

305

649.7

2379.0

234.0

5276.5

519.0

5.4

 

310

660.3

2418.0

273.0

5363.0

605.5

6.2

 

315

671.0

2457.0

312.0

5449.5

692.0

7.1

 

320

681.6

2496.0

351.0

5536.0

778.5

7.9

 

325

692.3

2535.0

390.0

5622.5

865.0

8.7

 

330

702.9

2574.0

429.0

5709.0

951.5

9.5

1975

335

713.6

2613.0

468.0

5795.5

1038.0

10.3

 

340

724.2

2652.0

507.0

5882.0

1124.5

11.0

 

345

734.9

2691.0

546.0

5968.5

1211.0

11.8

1987

350

745.5

2730.0

585.0

6055.0

1297.5

12.5

 

355

756.2

2769.0

624.0

6141.5

1384.0

13.3

 

360

766.8

2808.0

663.0

6228.0

1470.5

14.0

 

365

777.5

2847.0

702.0

6314.5

1557.0

14.7

 

370

788.1

2886.0

741.0

6401.0

1643.5

15.4

 

375

798.8

2925.0

780.0

6487.5

1730.0

16.1

 

380

809.4

2964.0

819.0

6574.0

1816.5

16.8

 

385

820.1

3003.0

858.0

6660.5

1903.0

17.5

 

390

830.7

3042.0

897.0

6747.0

1989.5

18.1

2013

395

841.4

3081.0

936.0

6833.5

2076.0

18.8

2015

400

852.0

3120.0

975.0

6920.0

2162.5

19.5

 

405

862.7

3159.0

1014.0

7006.5

2249.0

20.1

 

410

873.3

3198.0

1053.0

7093.0

2335.5

20.7

2021

415

884.0

3237.0

1092.0

7179.5

2422.0

21.4

 

420

894.6

3276.0

1131.0

7266.0

2508.5

22.0

 

425

905.3

3315.0

1170.0

7352.5

2595.0

22.6

 

430

915.9

3354.0

1209.0

7439.0

2681.5

23.2

 

435

926.6

3393.0

1248.0

7525.5

2768.0

23.8

 

440

937.2

3432.0

1287.0

7612.0

2854.5

24.4

 

445

947.9

3471.0

1326.0

7698.5

2941.0

25.0

2035

450

958.5

3510.0

1365.0

7785.0

3027.5

25.6

 

455

969.2

3549.0

1404.0

7871.5

3114.0

26.2

 

460

979.8

3588.0

1443.0

7958.0

3200.5

26.7

 

465

990.5

3627.0

1482.0

8044.5

3287.0

27.3

 

470

1001.1

3666.0

1521.0

8131.0

3373.5

27.8

 

475

1011.8

3705.0

1560.0

8217.5

3460.0

28.4

 

480

1022.4

3744.0

1599.0

8304.0

3546.5

28.9

 

485

1033.1

3783.0

1638.0

8390.5

3633.0

29.5

 

490

1043.7

3822.0

1677.0

8477.0

3719.5

30.0

 

495

1054.4

3861.0

1716.0

8563.5

3806.0

30.5

 

500

1065.0

3900.0

1755.0

8650.0

3892.5

31.1

 

505

1075.7

3939.0

1794.0

8736.5

3979.0

31.6

 

510

1086.3

3978.0

1833.0

8823.0

4065.5

32.1

 

515

1097.0

4017.0

1872.0

8909.5

4152.0

32.6

 

520

1107.6

4056.0

1911.0

8996.0

4238.5

33.1

 

525

1118.3

4095.0

1950.0

9082.5

4325.0

33.6

 

530

1128.9

4134.0

1989.0

9169.0

4411.5

34.1

 

535

1139.6

4173.0

2028.0

9255.5

4498.0

34.6

 

540

1150.2

4212.0

2067.0

9342.0

4584.5

35.1

 

545

1160.9

4251.0

2106.0

9428.5

4671.0

35.5

 

550

1171.5

4290.0

2145.0

9515.0

4757.5

36.0

 

555

1182.2

4329.0

2184.0

9601.5

4844.0

36.5

 

560

1192.8

4368.0

2223.0

9688.0

4930.5

36.9

 

565

1203.5

4407.0

2262.0

9774.5

5017.0

37.4

 

570

1214.1

4446.0

2301.0

9861.0

5103.5

37.9

 

575

1224.8

4485.0

2340.0

9947.5

5190.0

38.3

 

580

1235.4

4524.0

2379.0

10034.0

5276.5

38.8

 

585

1246.1

4563.0

2418.0

10120.5

5363.0

39.2

 

590

1256.7

4602.0

2457.0

10207.0

5449.5

39.7

 

595

1267.4

4641.0

2496.0

10293.5

5536.0

40.1

 

600

1278.0

4680.0

2535.0

10380.0

5622.5

40.5

 

605

1288.7

4719.0

2574.0

10466.5

5709.0

41.0

 

610

1299.3

4758.0

2613.0

10553.0

5795.5

41.4

 

615

1310.0

4797.0

2652.0

10639.5

5882.0

41.8

 

620

1320.6

4836.0

2691.0

10726.0

5968.5

42.2

 

625

1331.3

4875.0

2730.0

10812.5

6055.0

42.6

 

630

1341.9

4914.0

2769.0

10899.0

6141.5

43.1

 

635

1352.6

4953.0

2808.0

10985.5

6228.0

43.5

 

640

1363.2

4992.0

2847.0

11072.0

6314.5

43.9

 

645

1373.9

5031.0

2886.0

11158.5

6401.0

44.3

 

650

1384.5

5070.0

2925.0

11245.0

6487.5

44.7

 

655

1395.2

5109.0

2964.0

11331.5

6574.0

45.1

 

 

We see that the IPCC only looks at the near-term data (100 years) and completely ignores the bigger picture.

This is wrong and it is extremely dangerous because the whole Glasgow conference has been given the wrong compass course

because of this gross error.

 

I have only had time to ask one physics teacher in high school and he spontaneously said:

 

"This is completely elementary and beyond discussion:

Temperatures continue to rise almost as fast when emissions cease

because what is already there in the form of CO2 is the driving force."

 

Now the professors don't have many days left to declare the truth.

Otherwise, all professors will have to be replaced with high school physics teachers and with farmers.

Then we have a chance to correct climate policy and survive.

It can't get any more serious than that. The existence of civilisation is at stake.