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Bengt -- I have terrible climate news about the most critical number used in climate change calculations. If this single critical number is wrong, every climate change calculation using this essential number will also be wrong. The following is a bit technical, but I have included description links to make it easier to grasp how essential and bad this climate calculation error is for your climate future. And, there is a bit of good news at the end. The following is why past climate change predictions and solutions by the world's leading climate change authority (the UN's IPCC) are no longer valid and have been wrong for a long time. The single most critical climate change number is known as the climate sensitivity constant. Yet the IPCC has kept this all-important climate sensitivity constant artificially low despite continual protests by recognized climate scientists.
According to a new 2023 peer-reviewed study, the correct climate sensitivity constant is 4.8 degrees Celsius, not the 3 degrees Celsius constant used by the IPCC over the last decades in almost ALL foundational climate change calculations. This nearly 60% difference in the correct climate sensitivity constant over the IPCC's incorrect constant is NOT a minor or low-impact matter for your future. The confirming 2023 study that disclosed this massive climate sensitivity error is called Global Warming in the Pipeline. It is by James Hansen et al. (James Hansen is the renowned climate scientist who, while at NASA in the 1980s, was primarily responsible for bringing the climate change emergency globally into the public mind.) This newly corrected 4.8 degrees Celsius climate sensitivity constant amount powerfully indicates climate consequences will be sooner and far beyond what our governments and the media are telling us. It also means the fossil fuel reduction amounts that our governments have agreed to for reducing climate change (and that you hear continually in the media) are also grossly underestimated by as much as 60%. This corrected 4.8 degrees Celsius climate sensitivity constant also points to the fact that we are already in the worst-case climate change scenario that honest climate researchers have been warning about and for which humanity is not even remotely prepared. The worst outcome of having the climate sensitivity constant not being 3 degrees Celsius but 4.8 degrees Celsius (about 60% greater) is that almost all of the climate calculations provided by the IPCC upon which governments, media, and the whole world depend for accurate climate consequence severity estimates, consequence arrival timeframes, and the correct global fossil fuel reduction amounts are wildly not correct! This new and corrected climate sensitivity constant of 4.8 degrees Celsius means that our worst fears have not only been confirmed. It also means that when you include all additional factors listed below in reasons 1-5 below, almost all of the IPCC's climate change consequence severity and timeframe predictions and their fossil fuel reduction amounts are not just wrong by a little bit. They are underestimated by up to 60%. The illustration below helps to show that as climate conditions change or worsen, the climate sensitivity constant needs to be adjusted accordingly.  There are also other critical reasons to be very concerned about the severe IPCC underestimation in what you are hearing from your governments and the media on climate change: Reason 1: There are highly disruptive and potentially huge climate consequence amplification effects as we cross more significant climate change tipping points and feedbacks. Most of these tipping points and feedbacks are seldom included in IPCC climate change calculations. Reason 2: The IPCC also includes "backed-in" phony phantom calculations into its predictions and projections for carbon capture technology's "successful" future results in about 2050. This technology is entirely unproven at scale or cost efficiency and could have even worse unknown side effects. We wrote about this other massive IPCC distortion of climate change calculations and predictions using "magical thinking carbon-sucking unicorns" and what this distortion does to harm humanity and for the profits of global fossil fuel cartel in this article. Reason 3: Climate systems and subsystems include unknown non-linear climate change-related feedbacks common in complex adaptive systems like the climate system and many of its subsystems. The Precautionary Principle requires that some value be assigned to their occurrence probability in complex adaptive systems. Unfortunately, these non-linear climate change-related feedbacks are seldom included in IPCC climate change calculations. Reason 4: Even before the new 2023 climate sensitivity correction study by Hansen et al. came out, Job One had predicted the average global temperature in 2050 would be considerably warmer than the IPCC-predicted temperature of about 1.5- 1.8 degrees Celsius. We predicted it will be at least a 2 -2.7 degree Celsius increase over pre-industrial levels and probably more depending on additional crossed tipping points. (The Job One corrected temperature predictions for 2050 and beyond listed on this page; consider and include reasons 1-5.) Reason 5: Unlike many climate change think tanks, at Job One, we include probable adverse dialectical interactions and consequence interdependencies both within a subsystem and between the many climate subsystems that comprise the overall climate system. These climate subsystems involve ocean temperatures, currents, and carbon uptake, atmosphere composition (methane, carbon, and nitrous dioxide levels) soils, and forest carbon sequestration efficiency, glacier melting, snow cover (Albedo), permafrost and tundra melting rates, increased rates of methane clathrate melting rates, etc. Much of today's climate research and media and government reports come from single "siloed" climate areas and not from dialectical multi-climate system research or analysis perspectives. Dialectical multi-climate system research and analysis is different because it includes the possible tipping points, linear and nonlinear climate feedbacks, and other factors interacting within a particular climate system being studied and the potential or probable climate subsystem interactions outside that particular studied climate subsystem. Much can happen with a single climate subsystem interacting inter-dependently with and between all related other climate subsystems. Because of all the cumulative, synergistic, and dialectically interacting factors 1-5 above, what most climate researchers and activists do not realize is that we are already in the worst-case climate change scenario! The ongoing climate change disaster has happened primarily because of fossil fuel cartel disinformation and their behind-the-scenes nefarious manipulations, causing long delays in executing the honest governmental regulations, which would have and could have reduced global fossil fuel emissions to what they should have been beginning more than four decades ago. What does the new 2023 study and reasons 1-5 above mean to you and your future1. You have considerably less time than you previously believed to prepare and adapt to the next wave of intensifying climate change consequences. 2. Every plan or project by any government agency, business, financial institution, defense department, or construction firm that was in any way depending upon the reliability of the grossly underestimated IPCC climate change summary reports must now be re-calculated and re-planned. Henson's 2023 peer-reviewed study Global Warming in the Pipeline now introduces a massive level of unpredictability and unpreparedness for what we will face with the climate worldwide. Maybe the IPCC will finally learn its lesson and start using the Precautionary Principle of risk management that will protect All humanity and stop "cooking the climate change calculation books" to protect the profits of the global fossil fuel cartel. Here is some good news about the 60% climate sensitivity error by the world's leading authority on climate change, the UN's IPCC1. Because you know about this new study, you, your family, and your business will not be caught unaware, unprepared, or vulnerable when the world starts getting hit by the next wave of 1,000 and 10,000-year climate-driven extreme storms and other climate consequences. 2. You will not get caught again by the global fossil fuel cartel's sophisticated climate change disinformation campaigns. 3. The next time you hear a climate change reduction target or climate consequence report from the media or your government, you will wisely discount whatever they tell you by up to 60%. I sincerely hope this special climate alert helps you make the needed adjustments. And finally, if you have not done so already, please donate here! When you make a tax-deductible donation to Job One, you also get access to critical member-only climate information and gifts described here. Your generous donation supports our independent and 100% publicly funded climate change think tank speaking uncensored climate change analysis and research to power. For our children and future,
Lawrence Wollersheim Executive Director Job One for Humanity & Universe Spirit Additional Necessary References and DocumentationThis page explains why and how you have been intentionally deceived for over 40 years about the real severity of the climate change emergency. If you still do not understand the central role of the critical climate sensitivity constant in climate change calculations, click here. Click here to review other serious IPCC climate change summary report underestimation problems. Click here for the preparations and adaptations you will need to do before the next intensifying wave of climate change consequences. Click here if you are a victim of climate change damage or loss and you want to get financial and other forms of restitution for the damages you have suffered. Click here for ten key and accurate facts about our current climate change condition that the global fossil fuel cartel and its enablers do not want you to know. Click here for comprehensive and accurate climate change consequence predictions for 2023 and beyond.
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Job One for Humanity offers a science-based plan to end escalating global warming that is practical, prioritized and effective for the time we have left. It s contained in the new book Climageddon. For more about Climageddon go to: Climageddon Information Facebook Page Twitter This email was sent to b@ovelius.com. To stop receiving emails, click here. You can also keep up with Job One For Humanity on Twitter or Facebook. |
