Uh-Oh. Now What?

Crucial observations. Despite the obvious importance of understanding the reasons for climate change and the actions needed to restore a propitious climate, continuation and improvement of some of the most fundamental observations are at risk. The observations required to produce Fig. 6 are essential for the sake of understanding our current climate predicament.

[Political leaders at the United Nations COP (Conference of the Parties) meetings give the impression that progress is being made and it is still feasible to limit global warming to as little as 1.5°C. That is pure, unadulterated, hogwash, as exposed by minimal understanding of Fig. 6 here and Fig. 27 in reference 6. It is important that the remarkable observations that allowed construction of Fig. 6 are continued and improved – which is a greater challenge than governments may be aware of. Precise observations are needed from space and throughout the global ocean.]

Measurements of Earth’s radiation budget from space were largely a product of the burst of government spending in the 1990s on NASA’s Earth Observing System. As yet there are no firm adequate plans for long-term continuation of these observations. NASA tends to think of itself as an agency that develops scientific and instrumental techniques, while continued long-term observations should be carried on by others. However, in the case of climate change, long-term observations are the science. It is crucial that NASA make plans to continue these essential measurements.

Measurements in the ocean are equally important. The Argo program that distributed about 4,000 autonomous, deep-diving floats around the world ocean needs to be continued and enhanced. More measurements are needed especially in the polar regions where some of the most significant climate changes are beginning to occur, changes that will affect the entire planet. The U.S. National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) has provided a large fraction of the Argo floats, but many other nations contribute; the programs should continue their development.

A new climate frontier. The leap of global temperature in the past two months is no ordinary fluctuation. It is fueled by the present extraordinarily large Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI). EEI is the proximate cause of global warming. The large imbalance suggests that each month for the rest of the year may be a new record for that month. We are entering a new climate frontier.

When the first author gave a TED talk 10 years ago, EEI was about 0.6 W/m2, averaged over six years (that may not sound like much, but it equals the energy in 400,000 Hiroshima atomic bombs per day, every day). Now EEI has approximately doubled. Most of that energy is going into the ocean. If Southern Hemisphere sea ice cover remains low, much of that excess energy will be poured into the Southern Ocean, which is one of the last places we would want it to go.

That does not mean that the problem is unsolvable. It is possible to restore Earth’s energy balance. Perhaps, if the public finds the taste of the new climate frontier to be sufficiently disagreeable, we can begin to consider the actions needed to restore a propitious climate.