Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas. NASA has calculated that the Earth, like Venus, will be
over +400C if the atmosphere is 100% CO2
Each level of CO2 gives an expected global temperature, from ice age to pizza oven.
We see that the line in the graph fits well with the measurements from ice cores.
This confirms that the line drawn is quite accurate.
At the current 420 ppm CO2, the Earth wants to aim for +22 C anomaly. From NASA we know
we know that global temperatures are now rising at +0.035 C/year.
If all emissions are stopped today, the Earth will reach +22C after 22/0.035 = 630 years
Today we have +1.2 C and it is only 0.3 C before the Paris Agreement falls.
That's 0.3 /0.035= 8 years away if CO2 alone is allowed to rule. Unfortunately, methane is rising sharply
which makes the time to the fall of the Paris Agreement shorter.
Surely we can do no better than to stop all emissions today. This means that all outcomes
of the Zero Emissions 2045 policy will be significantly worse.
It is then clear that the Zero Emissions 2045 policy cannot work.
The Paris Agreement fails no matter how much the world saves on emissions.
Zero emissions today and the Paris Agreement falls in 6-8 years.
Zero emissions in 2050 and the Paris Agreement falls even faster.
There are already 3000 Gt of CO2 in the atmosphere.
40 Gt are emitted every year and that is about 1% of what is already there.
Therefore, one year of new emissions will hardly affect global temperatures.
Moreover, it will take 700 years for the full temperature impact of these emissions to be reached.
It is unlikely that a number of years of full emissions will even be measurable by 2050.
Since Glasgow is aiming entirely for NetZero, this conference risks being ineffective.
The focus must be on the 3000 Gt that already exists.
If 200 Gtonnes are removed per year, starting in 2025
then we save the Paris Agreement. The entire atmosphere will be repaired within 20 years.
This is the only strategy that will work.
So the message is that the world's efforts need to be a factor of 100 x higher.
This is achievable.
My new book is an action plan for what must come instead of NetZero.