One Single Error

A single error by the IPCC affects all other calculations and conclusions.

 

 

Climate sensitivity

The IPCC has for 40 years claimed climate sensitivity=3, i.e. the Earth rises +3C for every

doubling of CO2 concentration. Real climate sensitivity is much higher.

Perhaps the world's foremost climate scientist, Prof. James Hansen, reckons climate sensitivity=6

The Earth has exhibited climate sensitivity=36 for most of the last half-million years.

The true value is somewhere between 6 and 36. Strong forces seem to be preventing this discussion.

Please read Climate Sensitivity and the IPCC, a philosophical review.

 

 

The IPCC claims that the temperature will stop when emissions are stopped.

An honest and open discussion is going on here. It would be an important task for the press to ensure that this discussion continues. This is the key point - this is the very epicentre of the error the IPCC is suspected of making.

 

Time Constant

The time between rising CO2 levels and rising global temperatures is what the IPCC has wanted to write down to almost zero

in order to claim that temperatures stop immediately when emissions cease.

 

The time is governed by climate sensitivity.

Climate sensitivity=3 Time 20 years

Climate sensitivity=6 Time 70 years

Climate sensitivity=36 Time 600 years

The above is a rough measure of how long the Earth will continue to warm after

all emissions are stopped, depending on which climate sensitivity we subscribe to.

 

Furnace temperature.

The greenhouse effect has the same effect as if the Earth were placed in an oven at a certain temperature.

This furnace temperature is controlled by CO2 and climate sensitivity:

 

 

clip4655

 

Climate sensitivity=3 Oven temperature right now 1.9 C

Climate sensitivity=6 Oven temperature right now 3.5 C

Climate sensitivity=36 Oven temperature right now 24 C.

 

 

 

Validity of NetZero (Zero Emissions 2045)

Climate sensitivity=2 Can work

Climate sensitivity=3 Disaster

Climate sensitivity=6 Disaster

Climate sensitivity=36 Disaster

Please note that the 2021 Nobel Prize was a tribute toClimate Sensitivity=2 in 40 year old research.

 

 

IPCC says: "We already have all the technology we need to solve the climate crisis"

Climate Sensitivity=2 Maybe

Climate Sensitivity=3 No

Climate sensitivity=6 No

Climate sensitivity=36 No

The conclusion is that we need technology that no one has seen before and it must be fully operational by 2025.

The only way to the solution is in the important principles provided by Bill Gates and Vinod Khosla.

Climate understanding and innovation do not occur at the core of the system. It always arises

in the peripheries. Once we understand this we can invent the future we want Quote: Vinod Khosla.

We are talking about our only way out: the disruptive ideas that are currently being opposed from all sides.

Vinod Khosla adds: As long as the experts don't stop us. By this he means that the academic

the academic world is the main brake. One can reasonably estimate that academia

destroys > 90% of the disruptive ideas that will be our salvation. This is a global problem and it

a complete cultural revolution in academia should be discussed to get into the game.

The IPCC is also a major global brake as long as it fails to provide an accurate climate sensitivity.

Prof Johan Rockström is talking about a coming scientific earthquake on this issue.

 

Discovery consists of seeing what everybody has seen and thinking what nobody has thought.

Albert Szent-Györgyi, Nobel laureate (1893-1986)

 

 

The IPCC has been projecting for 40 years that we will reach +2C by 2100 at 450 ppm

Is this true ? Easy to show that the IPCC is wrong.

We can see that the IPCC used this universal, logarithmic formula 1.442*cs*ln(450/275) =2 C cs=3

The line B corresponds to climate sensitivity=3 and it is 60 years wrong !

It is just as easy to see that the correct curve A must have a much, much higher climate sensitivity.

When tested with cs=36, the forecast is correct. Interestingly, the climate sensitivity has been 36

all the time over the last 500,000 years. Look for yourself at Vostok Iskärnor.

The incorrect climate sensitivity=3 has shaped the bill and climate law. Line B as the IPCC wants,

increases so slowly in temperature that the Earth only reaches +36C at 100% CO2. NASA is 450 C.

Line B as IPCC wants, decreases so slowly in temperature that no ice age can occur.

Climate sensitivity=3 is a pipe dream for problem-free fossil fuel use by 2100.

The IPCC was awarded the Nobel Prize in 2007 in Oslo.

clip8711

 

 

By setting a certain climate sensitivity with great authority, the IPCC

the entire world's conclusions can be controlled, including all projections

and thus all global climate policy. By choosing the wrong climate sensitivity=3

all aspects of climate action risk becoming ineffective. A dangerous example is Zero Emissions 2045,

It is the only policy we have and it is a direct consequence of the wrong climate sensitivity.

 

You can clearly see and understand all these relationships in the graph below. It should be at the top

on the wish list for every citizen to take in all the details of this graph. Our whole future

depends on these relationships. Each of us must form our own picture in order to assess

whether current climate policy is working. Each of us has a responsibility to see the bigger picture, to try to

understand and take responsibility so that we have a climate policy that works. Otherwise, how will we be able to vote for

politicians who really have a workable policy, instead of the current cheating policy,

 

 

clip19062

 

Zero Emissions 2045 is driving us to a bottomless pit of misery.

The only policy that can work is about sucking away 200 Gton CO2/year, starting no later than 2025

 

Where is the expertise? Where is the leadership? Where is the technology ?

Fire all the current climate professors, journalists and politicians who

 

don't want to inform themselves,

don't want to think for themselves.

do not dare to face a democratic, open, honest discussion - the only method that can lead to truth.

 

We need innovation and leadership on a level the world has never seen.

 

 

If you calculate like the IPCC with climate sensitivity = 3, you see nothing.

If you calculate with a more accurate climate sensitivity, then

time is running out right now. That is why it is so desperately upsetting.

The psychology that deceives climate scientists, the press, the Swedish people and our politicians

is frightening and it is described here:

 

 

Psychological Research Provides Deep Understanding of the Climate Failure

and the flawed politics.

 

Half a century of research has led to these two books describing how Groupthink

destroys both science and policy. President J.F. Kennedy devoted much attention

to these research findings, radically raising the quality of policymaking.

We would need this now, more than ever.

Especially the newer, blue book by Prof. David Allen should be read by all scientists and politicians.

This will remove the biggest obstacle by far on the road to a workable climate policy.

Moreover, this subject is fascinating. It is basically about unravelling the blind

that are everywhere. When people start to think for themselves, it frees up

the enormous forces that we need to solve the climate crisis. We can also lift democracy to

the next level, which we might call "super-democracy". This renewal would also be enormously

important at a time when democracy is under attack from all sides.

 

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One result of groupthink is that the IPCC seems to be avoiding the discussion that would be necessary.

Extensive discussion with climate professors reveals a clear pattern: they are terrified

of saying what is not politically acceptable. How can true science and crystal clear evidence

in this atmosphere, where climate professors don't even respond when they discover

that they are wrong? It is more important to save face than to save the Swedish people and our children.

History is repeating itself:

 

In the mid-19th century, Dr Semmelweis tried to convince doctors to wash their hands before

surgery or childbirth.

 

Ordinary people in the form of young mothers-to-be understood the connections,

while doctors and professors from an entire continent

had become mired in ignorance, arrogance and prestige.

This turned the elite into killers, according to Dr Semmelweis.

 

Ordinary people usually understand that the temperature does not stop when emissions are stopped,

while doctors and professors from an entire continent are stuck in IPCC groupthink.

Dr. Semmelweis would say that this also makes the elites killers.

Getting stuck in IPCC Groupthink can be a major brake on the survival of civilization.

Perhaps the most dangerous point in the whole climate effort.

 

When will the press dare to discuss this?

 

 

Most critical phase in humanity's long history.

We are currently living in the most critical phase in the long history of humanity.

Solving the climate crisis will require international cooperation and the entire GDP in investment.

from every country.

A nuclear war or global economic collapse will make it impossible to solve the climate because money and cooperation

will be lacking. There is a very narrow window of opportunity open right now.

 

First it is a matter of correcting the gross error the IPCC is suspected of having made

by sticking for 40 years to an erroneous climate sensitivity = 3.

 

Please read the comments on the last IPCC report Apr 2022.

https://ppm.today/index.html?ipcc_2022_04_debatt.htm

 

Please watch the video that goes in depth

https://ppm.today/index.html?upprop.htm

 

or read the corresponding text

https://ppm.today/index.html?text-till-video.htm

 

 

PS

As accuracy is an absolute priority, continuous comments are gratefully received!

bengt@zero-zero.eu

 

 

Now the picture is clear.

Should Swedish climate policy be driven by precise science and mathematics

or should it be driven by a blind paralysis train ? right now the paralysis train is

in the lead and there are heavy indications that the IPCC and

a majority of our climate professors as well as the media and press

are in the blind lemming train !

 

If it is not so - prove it by an open and honest discussion.

The Swedish people do not want to be deceived anymore.

 

 

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