Paris Agreement

Countries have signed something that the politicians do not yet seem to understand because

the IPCC has given politicians the wrong information.

 

Many countries have promised to follow the green +1.5C line,

The graph below shows the effect of having "too much" greenhouse gases.(blue+gray areas)

 

Stopping all emissions TODAY will make the yellow area disappear.

However, the temperature continues upwards at almost the same rate. It is exactly here

that the IPCC is giving us false and dangerous information.

 

IPCC fails to notice that the grey field (CO2) and the blue field (methane)

must be removed within 20 years if the Paris Agreement is to be respected.

 

The cost is roughly estimated at 0.35 Million $ per person worldwide to remove the "too much".

The cost could also be much lower if the right innovations come along (even down to below zero)

That's 3000 Gt of CO2 and 3 Gt of Methane that must be removed in its entirety.

 

The sale value of methane can pay all the other bills and make the climate transition reasonably cost-free.

The technology must be invented NOW and a billion units must be in operation by 2025. Governments and politicians  

will soon be completely helpless when they see that NetZero can only affect the narrow yellow field.

The world needs leadership in the biggest collaboration between politicians and business in human history.

 

 

emissions_methane_co2_004

 

 

The IPCC has miscalculated and this needs to be recognized quickly.

The IPCC and SMHI BELIEVE that emissions (the yellow field) is the only factor. When it disappears

the temperature will stop rising. We can easily comply with the Paris Agreement.

 

They forget the most important thing: 3000 Gt of CO2 "too much" already in the atmosphere.

and 3 Gt of methane.

 

The IPCC says between the lines that the grey and blue fields don't matter.

There is only 1.8 ppm Methane in the atmosphere but it has 120 times more greenhouse effect than CO2,

which is equivalent to 1.8*120 = 216 ppm CO2

 

Consider this suspicion and seek urgent denial or confirmation:

 

The IPCC has miscalculated and this puts an entire world in existential danger

and renders the forthcoming Glasgow meeting meaningless.

 

The IPCC's various projections in the last report must be tilted upwards.

IPCC has simply forgotten to take into account the biggest factor - the grey +blue areas in the above sketch.

IPCC_AR6_WG1_SPM_page_29_SSP1_to_5_a_and_b-

 

 

The grey area:

We have 3000 Gt "too much" CO2 in the atmosphere and it won't go away when emissions stop.

CO2 is a greenhouse gas and as long as it's there, it forces the earth's temperature upwards.

 

Vostok measurements show that we can link 275 ppm with ideal conditions, without over-temperature

as the year 1700 exhibited.

 

Time and time again, the Earth has had dangerous +2C at the same time as 285 ppm. So there is

historical evidence that +2C and 285 ppm are highly likely to be linked.

This means that the current 420 ppm wants to push the Earth upwards and this driving force is ending

until the Earth reaches a temperature well above +2C.

 

From this we also see that the Earth's temperature cannot fall to desirable levels

until the atmosphere is less than 285 ppm.

 

Half a million years of data show that 285 ppm is associated with +2C

Significantly older data, perhaps 20 million years old, may contradict this.

Then an academic discussion arises.

 

Is 285 ppm associated with +2C ?

 

If the probability is 1 per thousand that a house will burn down, you take out fire insurance.

 

Can the climate experts promise that 285 ppm is NOT related to +2C. Is this answer

so certain that there is not a one in a thousand chance that the climate expert is wrong ?

 

If not, we know that 285 ppm occurred again in 1895. Had all emissions been stopped

the Earth would have reached a dangerous +2C about 700 years later. (The proof for 700 years is here )

Prof Jim Hansen shows that these +2C during the Eemian period 129,000 years ago

ago was associated with 10 m higher oceans and superstorms that moved

1000 ton boulders. We may reach +2C again in 2037.

 

 

 

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More details

 

This graph describes an ideal global NetZero 2050 where the whole world becomes climate neutral by 2050

NASA's latest discovery is that the energy going into the oceans doubles in 14 years.

This information is used to make a projection to 2100

 

This is the year 2027 where the Paris Agreement

is broken.

 

 

 

 

 

The link consists of business as usual until 2025 then falling emissions until 2050.

After that, the world is emission-free

Much of the world's greenhouse effect comes from methane.

Most of the greenhouse effect comes from


 

emissions_methane_co2_arrows_006

This is where the Earth's temperature is driven up 0.035 C/year

based on the fact that it is 3000 Gt too much and

3 Gton Methane too much

 

 

 

 

A perfect NetZero 2050 with global

participation will add

40*30*0.5 = 600 Gton. The addition is 20% of what is already there and the full temperature impact is 700 years ahead.

 

 

The green line corresponds to the Paris Agreement and it can only be respected if the blue and grey fields disappear at a high rate.

 


 

 

 

 

 

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