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Claim:

Climate sensitivity is around 36 and time delay between new CO2 level

and new stabilized temperature is approx. 650 years.

 

 

Prof. Dr. Reto Knutti, thank you for these encouraging words:

 

If you make extraordinary claims, you need to provide extraordinary evidence

and disprove five decades of research. I encourage you to do this....

 

 

Well, here is the evidence:

 

 

 

committed_warming

 

 

 

The model for the earth is supposed to be a RC net, where V1(t)  is  Committed Warming.

 

RC forms a time delay and V2(t) is calculated earth temperature anomaly.

V2(t) can then be compared with NASA real earth temperature anomaly.

 

 

If CO2 would be constant, it would be easy to compare the calculated graph with NASA real graph.

As climate sensitivity and RC (time delay between new CO2 level and stabilized temperature)

are supposed to be unknown, we use the very shape of the graphs to find maximum

fit with NASA real earth temperature anomaly. Here we find two important answers:

1. Climate sensitivity

2. RC time delay

 

In this case calculations would have been very simple.

But CO2 is changing all the time and so is Committed Warming. The formula becomes more complex but we can still search and compare  the shape of the calculated V(2) and NASA

to find true climate sensitivity and true time delay RC simultaneously .

 

That is the most important information in the entire climate crises.

Climate politics will succeed or fail depending on this.

 

Committed Warming V1()  can be expressed as a 2d degree polynom V1(t)= c*t^2+b*t+a

The current charging the capacitor C  = i =  C * d V2(t) /dt

The same current is formed by ohms law over R    i = V1-V2 / R

C * d V2(t) /dt =  V1-V2 / R

 

Then V2(t) can be solved from the following ordinary differential equation.

clip4733

It is convenient to work with the symbolic solution of the  ordinary differential equation.

The solution requires a couple of additional integration parameters:

tics=1960 (start time for calculation)

v2tics= temperature V2 at startpoint =0

 

clip4734

From here we can feed the equation with different conditions.

 

Now we can see how the calculated V2(t) (green)  plays out and we can compare with NASA real (black)  with climate sensitivity=3 and time constant RC= 25 years

 

As climate sensitivity and RC (time delay between new CO2 level and stabilized temperature)

are supposed to be unknown, we use the very shape of the graphs to find maximum

fit with NASA real earth temperature anomaly. Here we find the two important answers:

1. Climate sensitivity

2. RC time delay

In this case there is no fit which proves that climate sensitivity=3 for present time

1960 - 2025 is just plain wrong, incorrect. It doesn't match reality.

 

 

 

 

clip19114

 


 

Whatever time constant RC we use, it is a mis-match

Here  cs=3 and RC= 60 years

 

clip19115

 


 

If we test with climate sensitivity=36 and RC=650 years

we get an almost perfect fit.  

 

clip19116

 

This proves that climate sensitivity is not 3 but approx. 36.

 

 

 

Summary.

The equation allows us actually to test all combinations

of all climate sensitivities and all time delays (RC)

until a perfect shape - fit with NASA real temperatures is found.

 

What we find here is the true climate sensitivity right now

and the corresponding RC (years)

 

It is suggested that cs=36 should be the foundation for

all climate calculations. This will give a climate politics that works.

 

With this input, it was possible for us to make a correct forecast 2008-2022.

 

For the same periode, IPCC failed totally  (+2C 450 ppm 2100)

The reason is that IPCC relied on climate sensitivity =3

t= cs*ln(ppmCO2/275)/ln(2)    cs=3  ppmCO2= 450

t= 3*ln(450/275)/ln(2)  =  +2  C   Yes, that's the way IPCC calculated.  

 

We relied on climate sensitivity =36 and got it exactly right !

 

Why rely on a climate sensitivity=3 (=IPCC, SMHI) that fails every test with reality

and brings civilization to collaps ? This is exactly what Dr Peter Carter calls

the worst crime ever against humanity.

 

 

 

 

 

Hestra, 2022 11 05

(c) Bengt Ovelius

Sweden.

 

 

 


PS

The world goes to COP27 in Egypt today, 2022 1106

with this promise from IPCC:

If emissions can be reduced to 33 Gton CO2/year at 2030

it is possible to respect the Paris agreement (+1.5C )

 

 

WEBB_Växtusgaser_utsläpp_640

 

 

If this graph is calculated with the "correct" climate sensitivity 36, then

200 Gton needs to removed annually, start latest 2025.

Then, Paris Agreement can be seriously   respected and the entire

climate crises will be solved in 20 years, with 275 ppm CO2 in year 2045.

 

Everything else is cheating politics

 

 

WEBB_Växtusgaser_utsläpp_640_-200Gton.