All climate policy is determined by a single figure, the so-called climate sensitivity.
For example, if it is 3, then the Earth's temperature rises +3C for every doubling
of carbon dioxide.
The UN body IPCC determines this value and all climate experts use this result.
If the IPCC is wrong, thousands of scientific papers will be wrong and
our climate bill and climate law will be wrong. Zero Emissions 2050 risks being useless.
Prof. Johan Rockström has written a very important article in SVD where he calls this
the coming scientific earthquake.
Dr Peter Carter has been a reviewer for the IPCC reports and he has published a book:
"Unpresedente Crime". The foreword is written by Prof James Hansen who lifts
the credibility of the book to the highest level. Dr Peter Carter argues that the IPCC manipulated
the value of climate sensitivity. The difference between 3 and 4.5 is the difference between
life and death for all life on this planet.
Therefore, there can be no more important task in climate discussion than to find the true value
of climate sensitivity. We can only survive the climate crisis if we base everything on truth.
Climate experts seem to have great difficulty in calculating climate sensitivity. They try to
build computer models of the Earth and then run everything second by second.
It requires complex models and it requires very long runs in fast computers.
Scientist Örjan Hallberg made a brilliant breakthrough around 2005. He calculated all this
in reverse order, a kind of reverse engineering. He started from the earth's actual CO2 content
and temperature over a period of time.
It becomes a very simple mathematical model that any primary school student can understand.
The model looks like this: A certain climate sensitivity =cs determines what temperature the Earth
reaches after a certain time delay RC. That temperature is t=cs*ln(ppmCO2/275)/ln(2)
according to the 120-year-old formula, which is the very definition of climate sensitivity.
Nothing else is needed.
Now, just run this model in an excel sheet, and try all combinations of cs and RC
When the model matches reality, you can see that
Climate sensitivity=36 C
The time delay =RC= 700 years.
This is an extremely interesting scientific breakthrough in all its simplicity.
For 15 years this has been tested against various climate experts without anyone being able to
point to any error.
With these values you can finally make working forecasts and you can draw completely
crucial conclusions needed to survive the climate threat.
Some of the key conclusions:
NetZero (Zero Emissions 2045) cannot work because the temperature does not cross over
when all emissions cease. If all emissions are stopped today, temperatures will continue
continue to rise at the same rate for another 700 years.
Since 1700, the world has emitted 3700 Gt too much CO2 which is now in the air and oceans.
All this must go. It is easy to calculate that 200 Gt of CO2 must be removed per year,
starting no later than 2025 to comply with the wise political decision to stay below +1.5C
Every year 37 Gt of CO2 is emitted. That's 1% of what's already there
That's 3700 Gt driving the temperature. The Earth won't even notice a year's worth of emissions
The IPCC and many climate experts convey the image that 37 Gt drives temperature, which
stops when those 37 Gt cease and they give an image that 3700 Gt has no