Anyone who dares to spend an hour systematically playing with the climate calculator
risks learning more about the climate than 100 climate books can give after years of study !
This is a fun shortcut to heavy knowledge !
Calculator User Manual
Green arrow = real CO2 ppm in the atmosphere.
ppm means parts per million. 410 ppm CO2 means that there are 410 litres of CO2 in 1 million litres of air.
Red arrow = likely further CO2 increase in the atmosphere if nothing is done.
Yellow Arrow= Selects the year when radical action is started to repair the atmosphere
Blue arrow= Selects the number of ppm per year by which CO2 levels will rise or fall.
The green arrow sets the Climate Sensitivity.
If Climate Sensitivity=6 then the Earth's temperature will rise by +6C when
ppm CO2 doubles, for example from 275 ppm to 550 ppm.
Each of the blue dots represents a particular measured global temperature deviation
at a given CO2 level in ppm. These data come from VOSTOK measurements in Antarctica
and extend back half a million years. This shows Earth's true relationship
between CO2 and global temperature. It also shows a large amount of noise and uncertainty.
Nevertheless, you can have a maths program do a so-called regression analysis,
as shown by the black dots. One hypothesis might be that the Earth's likely
future temperature deviation at different ppm CO2 can be inferred from the black dots.
In this case, the Climate Sensitivity is between 20 and 40.
The IPCC has asserted for 40 years in the "Summary for policymakers" that Climate Sensitivity=3.
This means that +2C and 450 ppm will occur after 2100. On this basis
Swedish and EU climate laws are built.
The user of this calculator determines the Climate Sensitivity himself and sees the consequences.
The black curve is NASA's measurements of real global temperature.
When a new CO2 policy is set and the desired climate sensitivity
then we have actually created a new climate. However, this climate must
fit in with reality. This is where the curves point in different directions. The new climate does not fit
with NASA. Now the RC time delay must be adjusted until the curves match NASA.
This is also a way to measure real RC under varying CO2.
To understand the curves we can consider the following model:
The Earth is in an oven set to a certain overtemperature.
Oceans and ice resist and prevent a rapid increase in temperature.
A time lag occurs here. In the calculator, this time delay is called RC
and it is adjustable between zero and 2000 years.
We adjust the time delay RC so that our new climate matches reality (NASA)
In this way, we are actually measuring the time constant between the known period 1960 and 2020.
From this we see that each climate sensitivity has its own time constant RC.
If we consider that the Climate Sensitivity=40 then the time constant RC MUST be about 700 years.
Climate sensitivity is perhaps the most important figure in the climate drama. Survival of the next generation
depends on whether we can establish a true figure and shape policy accordingly.
Professors in the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences claim that Climate Sensitivity=2
IPCC claims 3, with some margin of uncertainty. A glance at VOSTOK gives support for 20
or 40. Ice age has a lower value.
NASA's latest announcement that energy flux is doubling
in 14 years should give reason to study cs more closely. We are probably above cs100
due to the impact of the steep increase in methane content,
The climate calculator can help solve this detective puzzle by allowing many to ponder
the problem and see the consequences of different options. An answer is urgently needed.