WGI SPM 2022

 Page 8

Considering all five illustrative scenarios assessed by WGI, there

is at least a greater than 50% likelihood that global warming will reach

or exceed 1.5°C in the near-term, even for the very low greenhouse gas

emissions scenario 26 . {WGI CCB 2.3, WGI SPM A1.2, WGI SPM B1.3, WGI.


IPCC has been working for 40 years with climate sensitivity=cs=3

which means that the Earth's expected temperature is +1.8C right now.

1.44*cs*ln(ppm/275)=1.8 C cs=3 ppm=420

If all emissions are stopped today, the temperature will continue

at the current rate 0.035C/year for (1.8-1)/0.035 = 23 years

The probability is virtually 100% that the temperature will go above +1.5C

within (1.5-1)/0.035 = 14 years


However, the rate is increasing rapidly as the Earth warms

and +1.5 C may well occur as early as 2027 (In 5 years)








The alert report from NASA suggests it could be that bad.

Doubling energy to the ocean in just 14 years can be directly translated

to the above forecast curve. But that requires being able to count on

different climate sensitivities and the IPCC seems to lack the mathematics for this so

so far. If not - let's hear the expert's mathematical treatment of

the below NASA info. Here is the full solution to a reliable forecast

and a workable climate policy.


We have the math, see Calcylator. Do the climate experts dare

this challenge ? The question has been on the table for six months now.






Page 14

SPM.B.3 Global warming, reaching 1.5°C in the near-term, would cause unavoidable increases in multiple

climate hazards and present multiple risks to ecosystems and humans (very high confidence). The level of risk

will depend on concurrent near-term trends in vulnerability, exposure, level of socioeconomic development

and adaptation (high confidence). Near-term actions that limit global warming to close to 1.5°C would

substantially reduce projected losses and damages related to climate change in human systems and ecosystems,

compared to higher warming levels, but cannot eliminate them all (very high confidence). (Figure SPM.3, Box

SPM.1) {WGI Table SPM.1, 16.4, 16.5, 16.6, CCP1.2, CCP5.3, CCB SLR, WGI SPM B1.3}



What Near Term actions ? If climate sensitivity=4 or more, the temperature will continue at about

the same rate regardless of action. The process cannot be controlled with Zero Emissions


Page 17

The IPCC holds out the prospect that the earth will stop warming abruptly when emissions are stopped.

However, if the climate sensitivity is 6, the temperature will continue to rise by 0.035 C/year

for about 70 years. The green-yellow line shows the absolute minimum growth in temperature

if all emissions are stopped now. Wind, solar, hydro, electric cars can't save us

so that we get BELOW the yellow-green line.



The IPCC has turned a blind eye to all climate sensitivities above 3.

There is an urgent need to investigate this and present derivations that everyone can understand.

The results must be in within weeks as disruptive innovations

are to be in place by 2025. Where is the climate expertise that is expected

to make the most important calculations in the whole climate crisis?


The driving force is the CO2 that already exists: about 3000 Gt in the air and oceans.

What is emitted per year is only just over 1% of what is already there, moreover

with a 70 year delay before the full temperature impact. All assuming

of climate sensitivity=6.


The IPCC must not be the main brake on developing the disruptive innovations

needed for the survival of civilization.


As long as the IPCC claims climate sensitivity=3, it risks being the main

and most powerful brake on the job of solving the climate crisis.

The world trusts the IPCC and calculates the wrong measures.

NetZero is ineffective policy if climate sensitivity=4 or more.

Where is the climate expertise that is expected

confirm this or present another simple and clear derivation ?