Danderyd Municipality is a municipality north of Stockholm in Stockholm County in east central Sweden.
It is one of the smallest municipalities of Sweden, but the most affluent.
Its seat is located in Djursholm and it is located within Stockholm urban area.
Danderyd Municipality also has the highest share (57.0%) of highly educated persons in the country.
See DN 2024 0215
Residents of Danderyd emit the most, 8.2 tons of CO2/person.
The Swedish average is 6.3 tons/person.
Following the Paris Agreement means 3.7 tons/person........... All according to DN.
Then we can make our own control calculation:
Pre-industrial CO2 content is about 275 ppm CO2, as it was in 1700. Excess temperature = 0 C
Four times during 500,000 years, the CO2 content has been 285 ppm CO2 and each time the earth has had a
dangerous +2C excess temperature.
Thus, there are strong reasons to believe that the Earth must go below 285 ppm CO2
before the temperature turns downwards.
The Earth currently has 3700 Gton too much CO2 in the oceans and air and this amount
accounts for an increase from 275 ppm to the current 420 ppm of CO2.
How long can the Earth cope with constantly increasing temperatures? If we guess 20 years
then 3700/20=185 Gtons must be removed each year. In addition,
the rising temperature produces other greenhouse gases.
So it is justified to aim for 200 Gtons of CO2 to be removed each year.
If the world's population is 8 billion people, each person has to account for
200*1,000,000,000 / 8,000,000,000 = 25 tons sucked away per year + plus all that each person
emits.
A person in Danderyd must therefore be responsible for sucking away
25 + 8 = 33 tons of CO2 per year.
Otherwise their own children have no future.
With today's technology, 1 ton costs about US$ 1000. So it costs a
person in Danderyd US$ 33ooo/year to do his part of the duty.
If the rich countries have emitted 10 times as much and also have
10 times as large resources, it will be an invoice of
US$ 330ooo / year = 3.5 Million SEK / year for each person in Danderyd.
The fact that the figures coming from the IPCC and the government are so
wrong is because thousands of scientific papers on the value for climate
sensitivity are wrong.
With the above simple calculation, everyone can form their own opinion.
It is actually 200 Gtons of CO2 that must be removed every year.
Current climate policy with zero emissions in 2050 is ineffective.
because all this is still about CO2 being added.
The entire climate policy must be about reversing with new technology
that are a million times more efficient than the best available today.
There is no other way out.
Moreover, zero emissions in 2050 is far too slow and is therefore an ineffective policy.
Current policies want to stop adding CO2 before 2050
when in fact we need to get down to 275 pm of CO2 in the atmosphere
within 20 years, i.e. by 2044.
We must stop adding the world's annual emissions of 40 Gt already today.
and at the same time cut back by 200 Gt/year.
It would work to continue with the emissions and at the same time cut back by 240 Gton/year.
Climate experts must urgently confirm these figures or point out the calculation error.
When the climate experts have confirmed ,a sketch of what the solution looks like isavailable here.
Thousands of similar solutions must be put on the table at a rapid pace.
The house is on fire. The press has a crucial responsibility.
No one needs to read any further but for the doubters there is Multiple Evidence:
The above reasoning shows what the climate situation looks like and what climate policy must look like.
Despite this clarity and simplicity, there are many climate scientists who say that the measurements from Vostok
ice cores only show the temperature in polar regions. It is a poor global measure.
The scatterplot below was given to me by scientist Örjan Hallberg around 2008,
I do not know the origin but have asked the experts for newer and better plots.
It shows how the level of the oceans has changed in relation to the CO2 content.
A curve fitting can be done in excel and then you get a curve
which is the average. We see a lot of noise but we also see a clear correlation
relationship between CO2 and the height of the oceans.
We can see that 285 ppm CO2 can be expected to raise the oceans by about 10 m.
Other measurements show that the Eemian period 130,000 years ago
showed +2C excess temperature, 285 ppm CO2 and approx. 10 m higher ocean.
Prof. James Hansen also shows that +2C produced super storms that could move
1000 tons of heavy boulders.
In just a few years, the Earth could be in the same situation with +2C and
superstorms that destroy buildings and crops and make transportation difficult.
This could be worse than Eemian because we will soon have 450 ppm CO2
while the Eemian only had 285 ppm. The radiation imbalance is much worse today.
Similarly, we can make a scatterplot of the curves at the top of this page.
We see a very large noise but we also see the
clear relationship between CO2 content and programmed temperature.
(committed temperature). There are strong reasons to assume
that the earth is now programmed for about +22C.
If all emissions are stopped today, the earth's temperature
will continue to rise at the same rate as today, 0.035 C/year.
The time up to +22 C is roughly (22-1.3)/0.035 = 600 years.
The Earth will hardly notice a total stop of emissions.
The temperature just continues. Therefore the NetZero policy is ineffective.
It is a result of the error from IPCC cs=3 (red arrow).
It is completely outside of reality but has still shaped the entire worldwide climate policy.
.
We can easily see that the IPCC has calculated correctly: The temperature at 450 ppm CO2 should be
cd*ln(450/275)/ln(2)=+2C cs = 3 t=0
That the point is outside reality is instead due to the fact that
the climate sensitivity =cs=3 is wrong.
From the wrong climate sensitivity also follows the wrong conclusion
that the time delay =t is approximately zero.
This is required for zero emissions in 2050 to work.
and one often hears from climate experts that the earth's temperature
stops as soon as emissions are stopped.
Reality seems to offer hundreds of years of increase in temperature
after all emissions are stopped.
The clarity comes immediately when calculating with the correct climate sensitivity.
The above graph can be further analyzed. The Earth's committed temperature
(committed temperature) can be estimated through a regression analysis of the
of the Vostok scatterplot. This curve is inherently uncertain but the principle is clear.
This is where the Earth will be if all emissions are stopped.
The blue line is the contribution of CO2 according to the Arrhenius formula at cs=25.
The IPCC has fooled themselves by looking at NASA real measurements with the mistaken belief
that the time lag is close to zero (maybe 20 years at most).
If everybody is convinced that there is no time delay
then even supercomputer simulations will take place in too small a time window, perhaps a maximum of 100 years.
This misses the most important thing (600 years delay and cs=36).
The tip for climate researchers is to at least try with input parameters
cs=36
t=600 years
Then the climate calculations are likely to be correct.
No one needs to read anymore but for the doubters there are further Indications and Evidence:
Nobel Prize winner and Professor Svante Arrhenius gave us over 100 years ago
the logarithmic relationship between CO2 and global temperature.
cs*ln(ppmCO2/275)/ln(2) cs=climate sensitivity
This formula is used more than ever today because it constitutes the very
definition of climate sensitivity.
We do not need any other formula than this one to understand the climate crisis.
Test small and large
Test small:
The atmosphere has to be brought down to 285 ppm CO2 as soon as possible.
in a maximum of 20 years, otherwise the earth will overheat.
After that, the CO2 level must be kept between 275 and 285 ppm. Then we are in the stable
range that made the development of civilization possible in the last 5000 years.
This line follows exactly climate sensitivity=36 and time lag t=600 years.
The regulation process is very slow, mainly due to the inertia of the oceans.
Test at large:
NASA says that the Earth reaches 400-500 C, just like Venus,
if CO2 levels are 100% (1,000,000 ppm).
Again, climate sensitivity=36
36*ln(1000000/275)/ln(2) = 426 C
Thus, the ingenious formula given to us by Professor Svante Arrhenius gives us
a rough measure of the Earth's temperature at all CO2 concentrations from 275 ppm to 1000000 ppm
at climate sensitivity=36 and time lag t=600 years.
Each CO2 concentration has an expected global temperature.
There is also a large noise that makes temporally limited deviations.
The formula is like a weak rubber band that constantly corrects the noise.
The Earth's temperature rises +2C when the CO2 level goes from 275 ppm to 285 ppm.
There is support in VOSTOK ice cores for this because it has occurred 4 times
during the last 500,000 years.
Those who want to attack the reasoning at all costs, claim that you can prove anything.
if you look back 100 million years.
You can then get stuck in arguments that never end.
The situation right now is to make quick, actionable decisions based on a probable picture
of a very complicated Earth.
Explaining away the crisis and doing too little means the end of civilization in the near future.
Test small and large: IPCC
Test in small:
According to the IPCC, 450 ppm gives 3*ln(450/275)/ln(2) = +2C.
The calculation is correct and the climate sensitivity=cs=3 is wrong.
According to. IPCC the temperature rises +2C when the CO2 level goes from 275 ppm to 450 ppm.
There is no support in VOSTOK ice cores for this because the earth has never had
450 ppm CO2 in this time perspective.
Test in large:
NASA says Earth reaches 400-500 C, just like Venus,
if CO2 levels are 100% (1,000,000 ppm).
IPCC claims climate sensitivity=3
3*ln(1000000/275)/ln(2) = +35 C
Earth cannot get warmer than +35C in the IPCC's world,
nor can the planet Venus.
The time constant is zero. This means that the global temperature stops when emissions stop.
In this way it can be argued that the NetZero policy works.
At any CO2 level, the temperature can stop when emissions cease.
This means that CO2 is barely a greenhouse gas.
With the above evidence, which everyone can understand
we see that the entire climate policy needs to be rethought
if we are to defeat the climate crisis and survive.
No existing technology can do the job.
Therefore, the only question in the climate debate should be:
How should 200 Gton CO2 be removed per year?
This can be done with structured, political measures.
Please read these two books that explain in detail
what our only chance looks like.
Bengt Ovelius