( English)
In 1850, Dr. Ignaz Semmelweis wrote a letter to all professors of medicine throughout Europe.
He urged them to wash their hands before giving birth.
He was laughed at, mocked in the press and was fired from his job
at the maternity hospital in Vienna.
It was midwives and ordinary people who pushed through the changes.
which then saved the lives of thousands, perhaps millions of young mothers-to-be.
Is the same thing being repeated right now with the climate? Will ordinary people
push through a workable climate policy that saves the lives of billions of people?
Time to look up and act!
All political power lies with the people (Constitution in democraty).
The countries of the world base their climate policies on IPCC findings:
1. The Earth gets +3C warmer for every doubling of CO2 levels (Climate sensitivity=3C).
2. The time between new CO2 concentration and new global temperature is short, 0-30 years.
Then the policy of zero emissions in 2050 works.
We have plenty of time because 450 ppm CO2 does not occur
until 2100 at a rather harmless +2C overtemperature.
Moreover, the global temperature stops as soon as emissions cease completely in 2050.
(0-30 years) This picture has been given to everyone by the IPCC.
These IPCC data are also included in Swedish Government Bill 2016/17:146.
which preceded the climate law 2017:720
On the contrary, everyone can see today, that the real temperature of the earth follows the red curve A.
It deviates completely from curve B, which the world's politicians are counting on,
all supported by the IPCC. Thus, Zero Emissions 2050 does not have the intended effect.
The following simple pictures, which everyone can understand, show that the climate policy
must be fundamentally changed !
These are VOSTOK curves of global temperature and CO2 content, 500,000 years back in time.
Pre-industrial CO2 level is about 275 ppm CO2, as it was in 1700. Excess temperature = 0 C
Four times in 500,000 years the CO2 concentration has been 285 ppm CO2 and each time the earth has had a
dangerous +2C excess temperature.
Sea level:
This curve (FosterRohling2012) shows sea level at different CO2 levels.
It is a completely different way of looking at the climate situation but it confirms
the validity of the Vostok curves
We can summarize:
History has shown that 285 ppm CO2 has given dangerous +2C overtemperature
four times in the last 500,000 years.
History has not shown a single time that 450 ppm CO2 has produced dangerous +2C overtemperature, as claimed by the IPCC.
Instead, the Earth may be programmed for +24C overtemperature.
We are heading there at a rate of 0.035 C/year.
The Earth's time constant is thus of the order of 24/0.035= 600 years.
If all emissions are stopped today, the Earth will continue for 600 years to come
with ever-increasing temperatures and ever-higher oceans.
This well-founded suspicion is based on this diagram,
described in more detail under Danderyd
The big overall error in thinking with today's climate policy:
You look at NASA's real measurements as the temperature result of the CO2 content has made so far and there is only a few millimeters left in the graph
up to the theoretical IPCC ca = 3. We will get there quickly,
if all emissions are stopped. It turns out that almost everyone
has been caught in this thought trap (due to the IPCC's incorrect cs).
This unfortunately includes SMHI and the Swedish Climate Policy Council.
After years of discussions with these bodies, it is clear that
that the country's highest climate leadership does not seem to understand
what it really looks like.
Thus, the Climate Policy Council cannot fulfill the task prescribed by law.
This is a sensitive issue.
It is often more important to save face than to save our children.
Therefore, a constructive discussion is not possible and everything is swept under the carpet.
In fact, the earth's temperature will be pulled slowly upwards
by a "violet spring", (see graph)
with the end result being about +24C after 600 years if
all emissions are stopped today. The exact values are debatable but the
the principle is clear.
This error in thinking will be our undoing if it is swept under the carpet.
If we understand what it really looks like, there is a good chance that the solution is within reach with great effort.
The slope of the NASA measuring points is thus the result of the "violet spring".
and the time horizon is 600 years.
That "NASA real" happens to follow IPCC cs=3 is due to a post-construction.
IPCC has probably looked at real temperature development for about 100 years,
probably without understanding that the violet feather is the real driving force.
A comprehensive discussion is called for.
This could be the key to the global mind trap
that prevents the right innovations from emerging.
A mathematical analysis further confirms that this picture matches NASA's actual measurements.
because the best curve fit is obtained at climate sensitivity = 36 and time constant 600 years.
The fact that the NASA curve rises after 2015 is due to the fact that the climate sensitivity is about
to greatly exceed cs=36 at the same time as Global Dimming decreases.
That is why it is so disastrous to continue working after cs=3 from the IPCC.
which means that the entire climate policy becomes maladjusted and ineffective.
An open, honest and comprehensive debate on this is called for.
This has been out there among the top climate experts in the world
for several years without any credible counter-arguments emerging.
There seems to be no one who can defend today's global climate
climate policy. Therefore, politicians must begin to take responsibility and ask
these uncomfortable questions. Lots of high-profile scientific papers
should be withdrawn. Everyone can understand the simple connections that give us the truth.
Therefore, there is only one climate policy that works:
Sucking away 200 Gton CO2/year, starting now.
The climate debate should be 99% about this.
We are up against the wall. There is no other choice.
Time is running out fast.
If we consider shorter filtering, we have already passed +1.5
and +2C occurs within 10 years.
It is far too late to be climate neutral in 2050.
Nuclear power is of no use whatsoever in 30 years.
This money is needed NOW to handle 200 Gton CO2/year.
When we can manage CO2 with new, simple technology, we can also
manage Methane in the atmosphere. Here is all the energy we need.
It is not an argument that we cannot handle 200 Gton CO2/year.
Nature does not negotiate at this point. The grim message is: Win or lose!
All of this is as alien to most climate experts as it was
to Europe's medical professors in 1850, that you should wash your hands.
I have been discussing for several years with the main climate experts.
So far, nothing has emerged that contradicts the above picture.
The experts are always welcome to provide their counter-arguments, which are
published here. With openness and free discussion, the climate crisis
can be solved in a fantastic way.
Industrialism meant that ordinary people were better off than the kings of the past.
A similar leap is now possible if we dare to see the truth and act correctly.
The current climate policy is leading to a bottomless pit of misery because it is not
policy based on truth.
The truth always wins. May it be quick enough!
See further under Danderyd